Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 1.338157 1.387750 1.438775 1.495335 1.556443 1.620659 1.693487
2025-12-28 1.281170 1.348155 1.419123 1.500327 1.591208 1.690429 1.807848
2026-01-04 1.245179 1.325226 1.412013 1.513907 1.631352 1.763872 1.926801
2026-01-11 1.203073 1.291644 1.389412 1.506573 1.644895 1.805348 2.009254
2026-01-18 1.170862 1.266723 1.374233 1.505468 1.663865 1.852455 2.099952
2026-01-25 1.128777 1.228124 1.340871 1.480429 1.651760 1.859971 2.140400
2026-02-01 1.100162 1.203686 1.322557 1.471772 1.658161 1.889544 2.209917
2026-02-08 1.073531 1.180314 1.304205 1.461679 1.661502 1.914492 2.274071
2026-02-15 1.048875 1.158238 1.286304 1.450937 1.662876 1.936171 2.334427
2026-02-22 1.033040 1.146030 1.279656 1.453542 1.680944 1.980207 2.428862
2026-03-01 1.005368 1.118543 1.253215 1.429818 1.663102 1.974184 2.449402
2026-03-08 0.983264 1.097190 1.233621 1.413968 1.654720 1.980287 2.487826
2026-03-15 0.963141 1.078133 1.216784 1.401653 1.651292 1.994137 2.540956
2026-03-22 0.954991 1.073551 1.217825 1.412466 1.679489 2.054239 2.671853
2026-03-29 0.950076 1.072739 1.223448 1.429305 1.716542 2.129308 2.835151
2026-04-05 0.936796 1.060979 1.214579 1.426225 1.725122 2.162074 2.930124
2026-04-12 0.926222 1.052320 1.209375 1.427765 1.740146 2.205295 3.048071
2026-04-19 0.906862 1.032003 1.188428 1.406978 1.721689 2.194918 3.066548
2026-04-26 0.894248 1.020037 1.178088 1.400436 1.723763 2.217024 3.148278
2026-05-03 0.881535 1.007649 1.166848 1.392208 1.722851 2.234035 3.221832
2026-05-10 0.869031 0.995259 1.155283 1.383112 1.720147 2.247753 3.290189
2026-05-17 0.861794 0.989507 1.152341 1.385972 1.735499 2.292168 3.427096
2026-05-24 0.845519 0.971675 1.132841 1.364696 1.712928 2.270899 3.421328